According to a news report today (16-November-2021) inflation has been detected deep under Fagradalsfjall mountain, that is part of Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano system. This inflation suggests that an eruption might start again in Fagradalsfjall mountain, it remains impossible to know when such an eruption might start. Since there is a lot that suggest this inflation is because of magma collecting at depth under Fagradalsfjall mountain. When or if that results in a eruption in the future is impossible to know.
This inflation is now large enough to be seen on satellite images that monitors deformation in the upper crust. In the upper crust this deformation appears small, but that is not all the story in this.
Around 10:00 UTC this morning (31-October-2021) the earthquake activity of long period and low frequency earthquakes increased this morning in Torfajökull volcano. The current swarm now seems to be coming from the glacier part of the caldera, the earlier activity seems to have taken part some place in north part of the Torfajökull volcano caldera. Location of the this earthquake activity is difficult if not impossible because of the type of earthquake activity being generated in Torfajökull volcano.
The situation is difficult to figure out just by looking at seismometer data. Icelandic Met Office is going to make a flyover today with the help of Icelandic Coast guard and try and see what is going on in Torfajökull volcano. Last eruption in Torfajökull volcano was in the year 1477 and I don’t have any idea what happens before an eruption in this volcano.
Inflation has been increasing in Askja volcano over the last few weeks. According to latest news that inflation is now at 14 cm, since the inflation was detected at the end of August. On Saturday 9-October-2021 an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,2 was detected in Askja volcano (I’ll try and add the picture later if I remember). This is was the strongest earthquake in Askja volcano in the last 20 years according to the news.
Askja is remote and there are no or limited amounts of web cameras in the area. With winter arriving going there is impossible for most people. If an eruption happens this winter the best view is probably going to be harmonic tremor data until pictures appears from Icelandic Met Office or someone with an air plane (if the weather allows for that).
The earthquake swarm with Keilir mountain continues today (2-October-2021) and largest earthquake at the writing of this article had a magnitude of Mw4,2. This might change without warning.
Based on what I am seeing it is my view that magma is the reason why this earthquake activity is happening. The magma seems trapped, based on the earthquake activity and that is interesting. This suggest that the feeder channel, that possibly started at this location has closed up and that is the reason why the eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain stopped. At least that is the working idea, if it is true I don’t know.
Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management and Icelandic Met Office has warned people against going to Keilir mountain because of risk of volcano eruption or large earthquakes.
It is unclear at the writing of this article if there are changes to hydrothermal activity close to Keilir mountain. There have been reports about it, but they remain unconfirmed at the writing of this article.
There is now a risk of an earthquake with magnitude of Mw6,0 in the area of Keilir mountain. The earthquake activity shows a pattern of high and low activity every few hours. Why this happens is not well understood at the writing of this article.
Because if Askja volcano quick inflation, that is now currently at 7 cm, Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management has declared uncertain level and yellow alert for flight.
Inflation is quick in Askja volcano and is now at 7 cm. When or if that is going to result in an eruption is impossible to know. Current Askja volcano is what remains of a mountain that blew up in an large eruption in the year 1875 century. Most eruptions are just lava flows, unless they happen to start in a water, then explosive activity happens while water remains.
This is unconfirmed so there might be number of other reasons why this is being observed. This also might be wrong reporting but based on web cameras that might not be the case. There has been some visual view of this on web cameras. Here are two pictures that I was able to screen grab from two of those cameras.
It is unclear what is going on and this might all be wrong. But I am also seeing this new light source on the web camera from mbl.is on YouTube as it peaks a little from behind the large crater in Fagradalsfjall mountain. That crater is not active at the moment.
I don’t know when confirmation is going to appear. If this is an eruption. If this is not an eruption, then there is going to be a confirmation of that too. I’ll post update here is I learn anything more in the next few hours.
The light on the second picture (on the right) is a human made light. I think it is the lighthouse. What is appearing on the thermal camera has not been identified.
Update 13:36 UTC 7-September-2021
This is wrong reporting that happened here. Nothing happened and what was seen on the thermal camera is most likely the heat from the crater. This type of wrong information happens every once in a while. Currently the main crater remains inactive and sulphur colours have started to appear on him from the sulphur outgassing that is now happening.
This is a short update on what is going on the eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain that is part of Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano system.
The eruption continues as before with few hours of eruption and few hours of no activity. (This is my personal view of the situation) Each event is an active eruption as it would happen with any other volcano. The time between eruptions now is just shorter than in any volcano in Iceland. Its hours, not decades between eruption. I don’t know why this is happening like this.
Cracks have appeared in the viewing area hill closest to the erupting crater. Why this is happening is unclear. There are two explanations for this. The first one is that this are tension cracks because of the eruption and lava flows nearby to this hill . The second explanation is that this is deformation cracks because magma is about to start erupting in this part of the hill. Formation of new cracks was observed early on in the eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain few days before an eruption started in that area.
There is now slightly less lava flowing from the crater. Current flow is up to 9m3/sec according to latest reports about the lava flow. This studies are done by Earth Science of University of Iceland and Icelandic Metrology Office.
This eruption remains small. Currently it is even smaller than Hekla volcano 2000 eruption that was the smallest eruption in Hekla in recorded history (according to the news). While the eruption remains this small the lava is not going to flow far or is going to do so slowly. Most of the lava is just going to build up next to the crater and next nearby area.
People continue to walk out in the lava and that is extremely dangerous. The lava field, where it is deep enough has large caves full of 1100C hot lava and if the roof breaks and people fall into it there is no saving anyone from this. Just break in the lava field crust allows for lava flows to break out with same deadly consequences.
Over the last few weeks there has not been a lot to report about the eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain. That changed tonight. The eruption seems to have entered a new stable phase. With constant eruption, rather than erupting every few hours and nothing happening for several hours after that. I don’t know if that is going to continue for long, but that is the situation at the writing of this article.
Most of the lava flow is going into Meradalir at the writing of this article. Some of the lava flow is happening underground and that lava flow is going into south-Meradalir that is just above Nátthagi valley. That can be seen as gas is now coming from that lava field and increase in gas emission shows that fresh lava is flowing under the crust of the lava. Surface lava paths can change without warning at any time.
Tourist continue to place them self in great danger by walking out in the lava field. If there is an accident there won’t be any recurse because it is going to be already too late anyway.
Update on 7-August-2021 at 13:48 UTC
Today (7-August-2021) at 08:00 UTC the eruption stopped. The harmonic tremor dropped quickly as the stop in the eruption was quick after going on for two and half day. Why this happens remains unclear. At the writing of this update at 13:49 UTC the eruption remains inactive.
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