Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano

Yesterday (12-May-2021) at 15:47 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,5. This earthquake was in the normal area of Bárðarbunga volcano caldera. This earthquake activity is connected to inflation of Bárðarbunga volcano that started after the end of Holuhraun eruption in 2015.

Green star in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera and few red dots east of Bárðarbunga volcano showing new deep dyke activity taking place. Image is from 13:20 today (13-May-2021).
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

There has been a slow drop in earthquake activity during the last few months and it is unclear why that is. Eruptions in Bárðarbunga volcano can be as short apart in time as 18 years or less. The 1996 eruption in Gjálp fissure was from Bárðarbunga volcano, that places the time between eruptions 1996 and 2014 at 18 years.

Earthquake activity South-West of Keilir mountain

During the night 4-April-2021 at 02:04 UTC an earthquake with magnitude Mw3,0 at 5,7 km depth took place 1,5 km south-west of Keilir mountain. This earthquake was felt in Reykjavík area and outside of it. Based on the earthquake location it looks like it is located in the dyke or close to it. This is part of the Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano.

Few dots on Reykjanes peninsula that shows the earthquake activity during the last 48 hours
Earthquake activity on Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Along the magma dyke there seems to be forming focused points of earthquake activity. Currently I am seeing two location. The first location is around the eruption in Geldingadalir valley (former) and the second location that seems to be forming is just south of Keilir mountain. It has been my experience during the eruptions over the last few years that this type of earthquake activity might suggests that new location where eruptions might take place based on this earthquake activity. It is impossible to know if anything is going to happen. There is no change in GPS data since the eruption started. The GPS data can be viewed here.