At 19:10 UTC today (02-February-2022) an strong earthquake swarm started in Katla volcano. Strongest earthquakes so far had a magnitude of Mw4,0 (19:10 UTC) and Mw3,4 (19:44 UTC).
At the writing of this article it is unclear if this is going to result in an eruption. The chances are good, but this activity might still slow down and stop before any eruption, small or large happens in Katla volcano.
This article is going to be updated if needed or new article is going to be written if the situation changes enough from what it is now.
Today (14-August-2021) an earthquake with magnitude Mw3,1 took place in Katla volcano. Other earthquakes where smaller in magnitude.
This earthquake activity appears to be normal late summer activity in Katla volcano. There was a minor increase in conductivity in nearby glacier rivers in last few days, that suggests that cauldrons have been emptying their water this summer. This is normal and happens almost every summer due to glacier melt.
Today (31-July-2021) at 12:53 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,3 took place in Katla volcano. A swarm of smaller earthquakes continued after the largest earthquake, this earthquake activity seems to be ongoing at the writing of this article.
Summer earthquake activity in Katla volcano is common and that makes it less clear what is going on in Katla volcano at the writing of this article. There is now a chance of more earthquake activity in Katla volcano.
Yesterday (29-July-2021) there was an earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Two strongest earthquakes had the magnitude of Mw3,2 at 19:20 and 19:22 UTC. Third largest earthquake at 19:28 UTC had a magnitude of Mw2,8.
It is unclear if this earthquake activity is just summer activity or part of a larger activity. At this time I am not expecting an eruption since the earthquake activity is currently too low for such event to about to take place. There are going to be thousands of earthquakes in Katla volcano before an large eruption. Until that happens. I do not worry about this activity.
Since yesterday (24-July-2021) and until today (25-July-2021) there has been rather strong earthquake activity in Katla volcano. The earthquakes are not strong with largest earthquakes having a magnitude of Mw2,6. It is unclear what is going on.
One of the reasons this earthquake activity is happening is that cauldron might be emptying in the Mýrdalsfjökull glacier. That creates a drop in pressure that can start earthquake activity. I don’t know if that is what happened now. If that is what is going on it is going to take the melt water few hours to reach the rivers in Mýrdalssandur sand area. There has not been any change in harmonic tremor activity following this earthquake activity.
Since 22-July-2021 there has been an earthquake activity in Katla volcano. This earthquake activity has been mostly located to the east of the caldera and largest earthquake so far detected had a magnitude of Mw3,0.
There has not been any change in harmonic tremor activity following this earthquake activity. That strongly suggest that this is normal summer earthquake activity for Katla volcano. Earthquake activity is also far too low for it to signal any eruption risk. That might change if earthquake activity changes and grows in size.
During the night of 11-April-2021 deep earthquakes took place in Katla volcano. Depth of this earthquakes was from 22,1 km to 24,5 km.
All of the earthquakes where small in magnitude and none of them did get to magnitude of Mw1,0. Earlier in the morning a swarm of smaller earthquakes took place at shallow depth but those are probably not connected to this deep earthquake activity. This earthquake activity has stopped and I am not expecting anything more to happen.
Yesterday (5-April-2021) from 17:12 UTC until 17:36 UTC. This where all smaller earthquakes and according to Icelandic Met Office (Kristín on twitter) this area last had this earthquake swarm in this area eight years ago just south-east of Katla volcano.
This earthquake activity at this location has never resulted in an volcanic eruption in this location during historical times. The depth of this earthquakes was mostly around 19 km and magnitude was from Mw0,7 to Mw1,0.
Yesterday at 23:31 UTC (16-January-2021) an earthquake with the magnitude of Mw3,1 took place in Katla volcano. Last earthquake of this magnitude was in November 2020. No other earthquake activity has been detected since the earthquake yesterday.
There has been slightly more earthquake activity in Katla volcano in December 2020 and in January 2021. Currently there is nothing suggesting that an eruption is about to happen in next few months to week. Earthquake activity remains too low for that too happen based on past experience (minor eruption in July 2011). I am not expecting any major changes in activity in Katla volcano for the next few weeks to months. Nothing might happen all year and that would be perfectly normal for this volcano.
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