Slight increase in earthquake activity in Grímsvötn (Grímsfjall) volcano

Over the past few months there has been a slight increase in earthquake activity in Grímsvötn (Grímsfjall) volcano. This increase in activity strongly suggests that Grímsvötn are now in later stages of getting ready for an eruption.

Earthquake activity in Grímsvötn (Grímsfjall) volcano. Close to centre in Vatnajökull glacier. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Last eruption in Grímsvötn volcano was in 2011 and that was a VEI=4 eruption and the largest one in at least 140 years. I don’t expect next eruption in Grímsvötn to be a big one, but there is no way to know that for sure until an eruption happens. When that happens is impossible to know for sure. When next eruption happens is something that is not possible to know. All that can be estimated that a new eruption in Grímsvötn volcano is not far into the future.

This graph gives a good idea the time interval betweens eruptions (last eruptions since 2000). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Since 2000 the time between eruptions is around 2200 days on average. That number of days is about to happen soon in Grímsvötn volcano.


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9 Replies to “Slight increase in earthquake activity in Grímsvötn (Grímsfjall) volcano”

  1. Hi Jon,
    I was wondering if the reason there are no small quakes showing up right now is because of the strong winds blowing across Iceland?

    1. Yes, the storm that is going over Iceland is the reason why there is low detection of earthquakes in Iceland at them moment. That is the most likely explanation. It might also just be quiet.

  2. Based on the curves in the picture, I would say that it is 500-700 days until the next eruption, if one really can compare the acceleration of the curves like that in the later phases of the build up for an eruption. But it is likely that it in average would be possible to make an approximation like that to get a hunch at least.

    1. What happened with the GRA and DIM high and medium frequency lines on the tremor chart around midnight last night?

      1. Three day winter storm has been passing over Iceland. It won’t be over until tomorrow, giving it a total of four days its going to last.

  3. Inspite of the diminishing trend in the swarm it appears to be getting alot closer to the surface.> Saturday
    25.03.2017 07:41:26 65.159 -16.374 1.0 km 1.1 99.0 2.0 km SW of Herðubreið

  4. There has just been another quake along the southwest wall of Grimsfjall. A 0.7mag with 6.7km depth. this is right near the spot where the 2011 brokeout.

    1. I think it’s a fake earthquake due to the strong earthquake swarm ~180 km north of Iceland. Its creating ghost earthquakes all over Iceland.

  5. Hi Jon,
    We had a lot of earthquake activity by you yesterday. What is your opinion on this? Thanks from Ohio.

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