This is a short update on what is now taking place in Katla volcano. This information might go outdated quickly after it is being written.
Currently the earthquake activity in Katla volcano is increasing. However there are no signs of imminent eruption as is. However that might change without notice under my current estimate. It is impossible to know if this activity in Katla volcano is going to continue to increase or slow down again. It is my estimate that activity in Katla volcano is going to continue to increase (based on past experience) before it quiets down again. That might not result in a eruption, since this type of activity does not mean that an eruption is going to take place. This activity in Katla volcano has increased that risk at current time and until this earthquake activity stops or gets to lower levels, that risk is going to remain higher then normal. As things stand now there are no signs of that an eruption is going to take place in Katla volcano.
During the minor eruption in Katla volcano in July-2011 (I wrote about it here and here) a minor earthquake swarm like this was also detected in Katla volcano. Back then as now it did start about one month earlier before the minor eruption took place. That activity took place in different part of the caldera then the activity that is now taking place. Today the activity in Katla volcano is the area that might have erupted during the 1918 eruption in Katla volcano (I think).
This earthquake clearly shows the sign of magma under pressure creating a earthquake. This is a possibly a tornillo event. Since it is a low frequency, monochromatic and with long tale in it’s end. I don’t know what is going to happen next in Katla volcano, if anything happens at all other then just this earthquake activity. More water has been reported in Múlakvísl along with higher conductivity taking place, that however might just be rain water in the area since it has been experiencing heavy rain for the past few days. I am going to continue to watch the activity in Katla volcano.
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