Today (28.05.2012) at 11:22 UTC an small earthquake swarm did start in Katla volcano. This earthquake swarm did end at 12:28 UTC. This is small earthquake swarm, both in numbers of earthquakes and in the magnitude of the earthquakes in the swarm. With the largest earthquake having the magnitude of ML1.4. The depth of this earthquake swarm was around 0.1 km, but that gives the depth around 100 meters or so. Following this earthquake there has been some minor disturbance at Álftagróf SIL station. But because it only appears on one SIL station. This change might have its origin in something else. Like human traffic, local wind etc. For the moment I cannot rule that out.
The change in tremor at Álftagróf SIL station. This change in tremor might not be because of Katla volcano. But something else. Please keep that in mind. Copyright of this picture belongs to Iceland Meteorological Office.
If the tremor changes at Álftagróf SIL station where from Katla volcano. They where highly local and did not show up on other SIL stations for some unknown reason. That has happened before, but the SIL network was not as dense around Katla volcano back then.
I find it most likely reason for this earthquake swarm where some changes in hydrothermal areas inside Katla volcano caldera. All hydrotheraml areas in Katla volcano are under high pressure due to the glacier that is on top of them. So changes might not happen without some earthquake activity as did happen few hours ago. This is also not in any way a sign that Katla volcano might be about to erupt. This is far too low earthquake activity for such event to be starting. There is an chance of small glacier flood following this earthquake swarm in next 8 to 24 hours. But it is far from certain that is going to happen.